Projected Exposure To Extreme Temperature

The dataset provides a global assessment of projected changes in average temperature by providing forward-looking indicators on average near-surface temperature across five climate scenarios. The dataset also provides a global assessment of projected changes to extreme temperature using a variety of climate indices such as hot days, tropical nights, icing days, heating degree days and cooling degree days. For indicators on hot days and tropical nights, the dataset provides the option to select between three different temperature thresholds (i.e. for hot days Tmax > 30°C, Tmax > 35°C and Tmax > 40°C, while for tropical nights Tmin > 20°C, Tmin > 26°C and Tmin > 32°C). Furthermore, a variety of population and livestock exposure indicators are available for a subset of hazards. Please see the working paper for a more complete description of the methods.

The dataset spans the period 2015-2100 and provides anomaly estimates for the future time periods of 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079 and 2080-2099, which are typically referred to by their midpoints as the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s. The available climate scenarios include four Tier-1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that range from low to very high-emissions scenarios (i.e. SSP 1-2.6 [low], SSP 2-4.5 [intermediate], SSP 3-7.0 [high] and SSP 5-8.5 [very high]) and an additional Tier-2 very low-emissions scenario (i.e. SSP 1-1.9 [very low]).

The dataset has a global coverage on a national level. On the sub-national OECD TL2 level, results are reported for all OECD countries as well as Serbia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Albania, Romania, Liechtenstein, Montenegro, Cyprus, Malta, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, India, Guatemala, South Africa, Tunisia, Indonesia and China. On the sub-national OECD TL3 level, results are reported for all OECD countries as well as Montenegro, Croatia, Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, Cyprus, North Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Malta and Serbia. A number of aggregates are further included: Euro area, European Union, Advanced economies, Emerging market economies, G7, G20, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD Asia Oceania, OECD Americas and the LAC region.

Data source(s) : The indicator methodology and the underlying data sources are discussed in the OECD working paper Maes et al. (2025). The primary data sources include projected temperature data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal, gridded population data from theGlobal Human Settlement Layer and FAO gridded data on global livestock distributions.

Contact : ENV.Stat@oecd.org