Projected Exposure To Extreme Precipitation

The dataset provides a global assessment of projected changes in average precipitation by providing forward-looking indicators on cumulative precipitation across five climate scenarios. The dataset also provides a global assessment of projected changes to extreme precipitation using a variety of climate indices such as very heavy precipitation days, average largest 1-day precipitation and the average largest 5-day cumulative precipitation. Please see the working paper for a more complete description of the methods.

The dataset spans the period 2015-2100 and provides anomaly estimates for the future time periods of 2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079 and 2080-2099, which are typically referred to by their midpoints as the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s. The available climate scenarios include four Tier-1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that range from low to very high-emissions scenarios (i.e. SSP 1-2.6 [low], SSP 2-4.5 [intermediate], SSP 3-7.0 [high] and SSP 5-8.5 [very high]) and an additional very low-emissions scenario (i.e. Tier-2 SSP 1-1.9).

The dataset has a global coverage on a national level. On the sub-national OECD TL2 level, results are reported for all OECD countries as well as Serbia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Albania, Romania, Liechtenstein, Montenegro, Cyprus, Malta, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, India, Guatemala, South Africa, Tunisia, Indonesia and China. On the sub-national OECD TL3 level, results are reported for all OECD countries as well as Montenegro, Croatia, Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, Cyprus, North Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Malta and Serbia. A number of aggregates are further included: Euro area, European Union, Advanced economies, Emerging market economies, G7, G20, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD Asia Oceania, OECD Americas and the LAC region.

Data source(s) : The indicator methodology and the underlying data sources are discussed in the OECD working paper Maes et al. (2025). The primary data sources include projected precipitation data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

Contact : ENV.Stat@oecd.org