Baselight

Historical Senate Race Forecasts (2008-2012)

FiveThirtyEight’s Election Day Probabilities vs. Actual Outcomes

@fivethirtyeight.forecast_methodology

FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts And Outcomes
@fivethirtyeight.forecast_methodology.historical_senate_predictions

Column Description
state U.S. state where the Senate election took place
year Year of the election
candidate Last name of the candidate
forecast_prob Probability of winning, per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast (0 to 1)
result Actual election result: 'Win' or 'Loss'
winflag Binary indicator: 1 if candidate won, 0 if lost
  • 7.69 KB
  • 207 rows
  • 6 columns
state

State

year

Year

candidate

Candidate

forecast_prob

Forecast Prob

result

Result

winflag

Winflag

Alabama2008Sessions1Win1
Alabama2008FiguresLose
Alabama2010Shelby1Win1
Alabama2010BarnesLoss
Alaska2008Begich1Win1
Alaska2008StevensLose
Alaska2010Miller0.71Lose
Alaska2010Murkowski0.21Win1
Alaska2010McAdams0.08Loss
Arizona2010Glassman1Win1

CREATE TABLE historical_senate_predictions (
  "state" VARCHAR,
  "year" BIGINT,
  "candidate" VARCHAR,
  "forecast_prob" DOUBLE,
  "result" VARCHAR,
  "winflag" BIGINT
);

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