Baselight

Historical Senate Race Forecasts (2008-2012)

FiveThirtyEight’s Election Day Probabilities vs. Actual Outcomes

@fivethirtyeight.forecast_methodology

About this Dataset

Historical Senate Race Forecasts (2008-2012)

This dataset provides historical data comparing FiveThirtyEight's Election Day forecasts for U.S. Senate races with the actual election outcomes.
For each race, it includes the state, year, candidate, forecasted probability of winning, and the result.
The dataset enables analysis of FiveThirtyEight’s model calibration and predictive accuracy over time.

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