Name: Historical Senate Race Forecasts (2008-2012)
Creator: FiveThirtyEight
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

About this Dataset

Historical Senate Race Forecasts (2008-2012)

This dataset provides historical data comparing FiveThirtyEight's Election Day forecasts for U.S. Senate races with the actual election outcomes.
For each race, it includes the state, year, candidate, forecasted probability of winning, and the result.
The dataset enables analysis of FiveThirtyEight’s model calibration and predictive accuracy over time.

Tables

FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasts And Outcomes

@fivethirtyeight.forecast_methodology.historical_senate_predictions

7.88 kB
207 rows
6 columns

CREATE TABLE historical_senate_predictions (
  "state" VARCHAR,
  "year" BIGINT,
  "candidate" VARCHAR,
  "forecast_prob" DOUBLE,
  "result" VARCHAR,
  "winflag" BIGINT
);