FiveThirtyEight’s Election Day Probabilities vs. Actual Outcomes
Dataset Description
This dataset provides historical data comparing FiveThirtyEight's Election Day forecasts for U.S. Senate races with the actual election outcomes.
For each race, it includes the state, year, candidate, forecasted probability of winning, and the result.
The dataset enables analysis of FiveThirtyEight’s model calibration and predictive accuracy over time.
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