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Arbitrage on Norway vs England World Cup Quarter-Final
- Norway and England meet in a high-stakes World Cup Quarter-Final with a slight pricing mismatch in the 1x2 market.
- Pre-match odds create a 0.66% mathematical arbitrage opportunity with a sum of best implied probabilities of 99.34%.
- While the margin is small, it represents a rare risk-free betting opportunity on a major international tournament match.
Supporting datasets
Supporting queries
To surface this insight, Baselight ran 6 queries across its structured data. Each one is reproducible — open it, read the SQL, and rerun it yourself.
Conclusion
In the World Cup Quarter-Final fixture scheduled for 2026-07-11, a pricing divergence across bookmakers creates a mathematical arbitrage opportunity on the Match Winner market. 1xBet offers 4.28 for a Norway home win (implied probability 23.36%) and 3.85 for a Draw (implied probability 25.97%). Dafabet offers 2.00 for an England away win (implied probability 50.00%). The sum of these three best implied probabilities is 99.34%, which is below the 100% threshold and yields a mathematical arbitrage margin of 0.66%. This opportunity was identified by checking 10+ bookmakers. Pre-match odds are current as of today's date of 2026-07-08.