About this Dataset

Modeling Potential Changes In Seagrass Coverage, Biomass And Vulnerability Under Increased Temperature

Increased water temperature from global climate change may exacerbate existing stresses to eelgrass (Zostera marina) meadows throughout the northeastern United States, possibly leading to declines in populations. In this study, we developed a data-driven model to estimate how seagrass distribution and abundance will likely change with expected temperature increases under climate-change scenarios and applied the model to Pleasant Bay, Massachusetts. Long-term seagrass and water quality monitoring data along with satellite temperature data were used to generate the spatial distribution of environmental drivers across the Bay. These data were then used in a 0-D point-model that incorporated both empirical and mechanistic relationships to predict future spatial seagrass distribution and abundance assuming increases of 1.2°C and 1.95°C by the year 2050. The model demonstrated decline in distribution and abundance with increasing temperature alongside estimated 49 to 93% reductions in biomass. There was a complete loss of regions able to sustain seagrass under the highest temperature scenario. Most of the predicted loss occurred along the shallow and deep edges of the meadows effectively squeezing eelgrass into a narrow depth range where both light and temperature conditions remain favorable for eelgrass growth. These results are intended to help inform the development of targeted conservation and management actions to address the region-wide downward trajectory and facilitate recovery.
Organization: Department of the Interior
Last updated: 2023-08-30T17:01:04.292720
Tags: climate-change, eelgrass, model, sea-surface-temperature, seagrass, zostera-marina

Tables

CACO PB LS MeanSST 2013–2019

@usgov.doi_gov_modeling_potential_changes_in_seagrass_coverag_21c8cd1e.caco_pb_ls_meansst_2013_2019

48.95 KB
2403 rows
5 columns


CREATE TABLE caco_pb_ls_meansst_2013_2019 (
  "location" VARCHAR,
  "year" BIGINT,
  "day_of_year" BIGINT,
  "date" TIMESTAMP,
  "temp_c" DOUBLE
);

CACO PB Tier2 Eelgrass Survey Data 2006–2019

@usgov.doi_gov_modeling_potential_changes_in_seagrass_coverag_21c8cd1e.caco_pb_tier2_eelgrass_survey_data_2006_2019

22.85 KB
1031 rows
12 columns


CREATE TABLE caco_pb_tier2_eelgrass_survey_data_2006_2019 (
  "year" BIGINT,
  "hexagon" BIGINT,
  "northing_coord" DOUBLE,
  "easting_coord" DOUBLE,
  "date" VARCHAR,
  "species" VARCHAR,
  "percent_cover" DOUBLE,
  "canopy_height" DOUBLE,
  "seagrass_presence" BIGINT,
  "percent_fine_sediment" DOUBLE,
  "sediment_type" VARCHAR,
  "depth_m" DOUBLE
);

CACO PB Tier3 Eelgrass Biomass Data 2003–2019

@usgov.doi_gov_modeling_potential_changes_in_seagrass_coverag_21c8cd1e.caco_pb_tier3_eelgrass_biomass_data_2003_2019

62.34 KB
691 rows
27 columns


CREATE TABLE caco_pb_tier3_eelgrass_biomass_data_2003_2019 (
  "year" BIGINT,
  "date" TIMESTAMP,
  "day_of_year" BIGINT,
  "month" BIGINT,
  "season" VARCHAR,
  "transect" VARCHAR,
  "quadrat" BIGINT,
  "percent_cover" BIGINT,
  "canopy_height_cm" DOUBLE,
  "density_m2" DOUBLE,
  "total_biomass_gm2" DOUBLE,
  "ag_biomass_gm2" DOUBLE,
  "leaf_biomass_gm2" DOUBLE,
  "bg_biomass_gm2" DOUBLE,
  "single_shoot_bio_g" DOUBLE,
  "ratio_leaf_to_bg" DOUBLE,
  "ratio_ag_to_bg" DOUBLE,
  "sediment_type_center" VARCHAR,
  "percent_clay" DOUBLE,
  "percent_silt" DOUBLE,
  "percent_sand" DOUBLE,
  "percent_gravel" DOUBLE,
  "percent_om" DOUBLE,
  "depth_m" DOUBLE,
  "depth_below_mhw_m" DOUBLE,
  "depth_below_mtl_m" DOUBLE,
  "depth_below_mlw_m" DOUBLE
);

READ ME CACO PB Kd Data 2007–2019

@usgov.doi_gov_modeling_potential_changes_in_seagrass_coverag_21c8cd1e.read_me_caco_pb_kd_data_2007_2019

2.83 KB
4 rows
2 columns


CREATE TABLE read_me_caco_pb_kd_data_2007_2019 (
  "station_type" VARCHAR,
  "station_type_logging_station_continuous_logger_spatial_f9cd9bff" VARCHAR
);

READ ME CACO PB LS MeanSST 2013–2019

@usgov.doi_gov_modeling_potential_changes_in_seagrass_coverag_21c8cd1e.read_me_caco_pb_ls_meansst_2013_2019

2.78 KB
4 rows
2 columns


CREATE TABLE read_me_caco_pb_ls_meansst_2013_2019 (
  "location" VARCHAR,
  "location_of_logger_ls_c_logging_station_in_seagrass_transect_c" VARCHAR
);

READ ME CACO PB Tier2 Eelgrass Survey Data 2006–2019

@usgov.doi_gov_modeling_potential_changes_in_seagrass_coverag_21c8cd1e.read_me_caco_pb_tier2_eelgrass_survey_data_2006_2019

2.76 KB
11 rows
2 columns


CREATE TABLE read_me_caco_pb_tier2_eelgrass_survey_data_2006_2019 (
  "year" VARCHAR,
  "year_of_sample" VARCHAR
);

READ ME CACO PB Tier3 Eelgrass Biomass Data 2003–2019

@usgov.doi_gov_modeling_potential_changes_in_seagrass_coverag_21c8cd1e.read_me_caco_pb_tier3_eelgrass_biomass_data_2003_2019

3.21 KB
26 rows
2 columns


CREATE TABLE read_me_caco_pb_tier3_eelgrass_biomass_data_2003_2019 (
  "year" VARCHAR,
  "year_of_sample" VARCHAR
);