Dataset Description
The range of CO2 mitigation curves for a range of "start year scenarios": scenarios are based on the annual emission reductions necessary to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C if emissions mitigation was to start in a given year.
For example, "Start in 2010" marks the necessary future emissions pathway to have a >66% chance of keeping global average temperatures below 1.5°C warming if global CO2 emissions mitigation had started in 2010, very quickly peaking then falling.
Historical emissions to 2017 are sourced from CDIAC/Global Carbon Project, projection to 2018 from Global Carbon Project (Le Quéré et al. 2018).
Global cumulative CO2 emissions budgets are from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C (Rogelj et al. 2018): 420 GtCO2 for a 66% chance of 1.5°C and 1170 GtCO2 for a 66% chance of 2°C. Mitigation curves describe approximately exponential decay pathways such that the quota is never exceeded (see Raupach et al., 2014).
