Does xG provide any value for soccer?

Evaluating xG as a Predictor of Team and Player Success in European Football (2024/25 Season)

Dashboard Overview

Expected Goals (xG) has revolutionized football analytics by quantifying scoring opportunities based on shot location, type, and situation. But the critical question remains: Is xG truly a reliable predictor of success?

This comprehensive analysis examines data from Europe's top 3 leagues - Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Primeira Liga - to determine whether expected goals correlate with actual performance at both team and player levels.

Correlation

The chart reveals a remarkably strong correlation between expected goals and actual goals scored across Europe's top strikers. This tight alignment provides compelling evidence that xG is indeed a reliable predictor of scoring success.

Sporting CP and Nottingham Forest are ridiculously overperforming their xG - pure finishing luck that won’t last. Meanwhile, Montpellier and Monaco are a joke up front, wasting chance after chance and dragging their numbers into the basement.

Marseille, PSG, and Barcelona stand out as the chaos merchants here - their xG creation swings wildly from game to game with zero stability.