Ten key messages

1. The world’s population is likely to peak within the current century.
   The world’s population is expected to continue growing for another 50 or 60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3
   billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, it is projected to start declining, gradually
   falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
2. One in four people globally lives in a country whose population has already peaked in size.
   In 63 countries and areas, containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, the size of the population
   peaked before 2024. In 48 countries and areas, with 10 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, population size
   is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. In the remaining 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to
   continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100.
3. Women today bear, one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990.
   Currently, the global fertility rate stands at 2.3 live births per woman, down from 3.3 births in 1990. More than half
   of all countries and areas globally have fertility below 2.1 births per woman, the level required for a population to
   maintain a constant size in the long run without migration.
4. Early childbearing has harmful effects on young mothers and their children.
   In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under age 18 –
   and some 340,000, to girls under age 15 – with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the
   young mothers and their children. Investing in the education of youth, especially girls, and increasing the ages
   Photo credit: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/file/16497
   United Nations | Department of Economic and Social Affairs | Population Division
   at marriage and first childbearing in countries where these milestone events tend to occur early will have positive
   effects on women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation.
5. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy is rising once again.
   Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions
   in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. Since 2022, life
   expectancy has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in nearly all countries and areas.
6. The main driver of global population increase through mid-century will be the momentum
   created by growth in the past.
   The number of women at ages 15–49 is projected to grow from nearly 2 billion in 2024 to a peak of around 2.2 billion
   in the late 2050s, driving continued growth even if the number of births per woman falls to the replacement level.
   Today’s youthful age structure, which is a product of past growth, will account for 79 per cent of the population
   increase through 2054, adding about 1.4 billion people.