Mapping Al-Shabaab's Activity

2022 was the deadliest year in Somalia since at least 2018, with over 6,500 reported fatalities, compared to fewer than 3,500 reported fatalities in 2021. The rise in fatalities and political violence events in 2022 coincided with heightened al-Shabaab activity and government operations in response. In 2022, al-Shabaab remained the most active violent group in Somalia. Conflict activity increased notably from August 2022, after the government launched offensive operations against al-Shabaab in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Mudug, and Galgaduud regions with support from Hawadle, Abgal, and Habar Gedir clan militias, respectively.1 In the five months between August and December 2022, ACLED records over 1,200 political violence events and 3,850 reported fatalities resulting from al-Shabaab activity. This is far higher than the estimated 2,000 reported fatalities connected to al-Shabaab activity in the first seven months of the year. Further, clan militias were actively involved in supporting government forces, with a 31% increase in clan militia involvement in political violence in the country in 2022.

Other trends impacting political violence in Somalia last year included: rising activity by the local franchise of the Islamic State (IS) in the capital Mogadishu; and growing tensions in Somaliland, where assassinations of prominent politicians and leaders from Dhulbahante sub-clans have led to deadly unrest between clan militias and Somaliland security forces.