Conflict Watchlist

this graph was created in PowerBi,Tableau and Loocker Studio :

In ACLED’s Conflict Watchlist, we identify 10 crisis areas that are likely to evolve in the coming year, both for better and for worse. The Watchlist goes beyond showcasing violent hotspots and instead offers a view into some of the world’s most complex crises. As we enter 2025, there is no shortage of intractable conflicts to choose from. But in our selection, we highlight those that represent the more general trends we are seeing from ACLED’s Conflict Index.

International and state violence represent a growing share of overall conflict rates. Conflict event rates grew by over 25% in 2024 compared to 2023, and much of this was due to the conflict emerging between states, and close affiliates of states, across the Middle East.

In the Watchlist, we cover Iran and its allies, and Israel and its neighbors. Iran’s regime is in a precarious and weak state domestically and internationally — its non-state allies are being humiliated and dismantled at pace. However, as demonstrated by the activity in Syria in late 2024, this is the beginning of the problems that may lead to a drastically changed region and the end of an era heavily influenced by Iranian politics. As noted by ACLED’s specialist Luca Nevola: “The strategic balance now favors Tel Aviv, as two of Iran’s key security pillars — regional influence through Axis of Resistance non-state actors, and missile and drone capabilities — appear under strain.”

In turn, Israel has chosen to bear the cost of being an international pariah for the chance to retrieve its military standing, which was doubted in late 2023. Despite the widespread condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza, it is on track to drastically alter this region, and forge new — if reluctant — relationships with Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is also reaching a turning point, three years on. ACLED records a 63% increase in the average monthly battles in Ukraine compared to 2023, resulting in steady territorial gains for Russia. Trump’s election in the United States coupled with rising European fears and demands on their individual and collective military strength, are changing the political calculus that had previously sustained Ukraine’s continued support. However, Russia’s maximal demands and Ukraine’s existential dilemma mean that negotiation terms will be extremely difficult to reconcile. Conflict is very likely to continue at present or even higher levels.

Long-running conflicts see new opportunities to continue rather than incentives to end. A significant reason for the doubling of conflict rates since 2020 is that long-running conflicts are getting worse, not better. The resuscitation of long-running conflicts means peace agreements, negotiations, and cessations are now quite rare.

How can conflicts that reverberated for several years — such as those in Syria, the Great Lakes, the Sahel, and Pakistan — regenerate and continue into 2025? By taking advantage of opportunities presented by geopolitical shifts, interconnections across borders through contagious groups, alliances, proxy forces, and creating divisions between neighboring states.