Nottingham Forest Score 13 PL Goals From 5.16 xG in Last 4 Games — 7.84-Goal Surplus
Nottingham Forest have scored 13 Premier League goals from just 5.16 xG across their last four matches, a +7.84 surplus that means they are converting at 2.5× their expected rate. The streak — including a 5-0 win over Sunderland from only 1.30 xG — raises sharp questions about whether this is elite finishing or unsustainable variance.
Supporting 8 queries
To surface this insight, Baselight ran 8 queries across its structured data. Each one is reproducible — open it, read the SQL, and rerun it yourself.
Conclusion
Forest xG by game (last 4): 1.48 → 3 goals (Tottenham 3-0), 1.18 → 4 goals (Burnley 4-1), 1.20 → 1 goal (Aston Villa 1-1), 1.30 → 5 goals (Sunderland 5-0). Total: 5.16 xG, 13 goals scored, surplus +7.84. Forest standings: 39 pts, 34 played, 16th.