Athletic Club Beat Osasuna 1-0 on Just 0.56 xG — Their 4th Win This Season Despite Sub-0.9 xG Output
Athletic Club beat Osasuna 1-0 yesterday with just 0.56 xG on 7 shots while Osasuna generated 1.12 xG on 8 shots — a complete xG reversal. This is the most extreme instance of a season-long pattern: Athletic Club have won multiple La Liga matches with sub-0.9 xG while losing games where they generated 1.76 xG (at Girona) and 1.21 xG (vs Villarreal), pointing to a team whose conversion efficiency and defensive organisation systematically outperforms their shot quality.
Supporting 7 queries
To surface this insight, Baselight ran 7 queries across its structured data. Each one is reproducible — open it, read the SQL, and rerun it yourself.
Conclusion
Yesterday: Athletic Club 0.56 xG, Osasuna 1.12 xG, result 1-0 (match_stats Apr 21). Season pattern: 4 wins recorded with sub-0.9 xG; losses recorded at 1.76 xG (at Girona) and 1.21 xG (vs Villarreal). Standings Apr 21: 9th, 41 pts. Osasuna had 8 shots to Athletic Club's 7.