Mainz Generate 2.16 xG and 17 Shots vs Gladbach — Then Draw 1-1 as Underdogs at 2.44
FSV Mainz 05 were the superior side in almost every metric against Borussia Mönchengladbach — 62% possession, 17 shots to 9, 2.16 xG to 0.62 — yet the match ended 1-1, denying Mainz two points while Gladbach, sitting 13th in a six-team relegation dogfight on 31 points, extracted a survival-critical result from just 0.62 xG.
Supporting 4 queries
To surface this insight, Baselight ran 4 queries across its structured data. Each one is reproducible — open it, read the SQL, and rerun it yourself.
Conclusion
Mainz xG 2.16, shots 17, possession 62%; Gladbach xG 0.62, shots 9; xG gap: 1.54 in Mainz's favour. Mainz odds 2.44 home (10Bet); Mainz 10th/34pts, Gladbach 13th/31pts, 8 teams within 11 points of the relegation zone. Data from match_stats (match_id: 91f0e027) and standings 2026-04-19.