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Possible 1x2 arbitrage on Portugal vs Croatia World Cup clash
- Pre-match odds on Portugal vs Croatia on July 2 create a mathematical arbitrage opportunity across bookmakers.
- Using Dafabet's home win odds of 1.85 and 1xBet's draw of 3.90 and away win of 5.15 yields an implied probability sum of 99.11%.
- This divergence guarantees a risk-free margin of 0.89% regardless of the match outcome.
Supporting datasets
Supporting queries
To surface this insight, Baselight ran 4 queries across its structured data. Each one is reproducible — open it, read the SQL, and rerun it yourself.
Conclusion
In the World Cup match between Portugal and Croatia on July 2, 2026, the best available pre-match odds across 12 checked bookmakers are: Home win at 1.85 (Dafabet, implied probability 54.05%), Draw at 3.90 (1xBet, implied probability 25.64%), and Away win at 5.15 (1xBet, implied probability 19.42%). Summing these implied probabilities gives 54.05% + 25.64% + 19.42% = 99.11%, which is below the 100% threshold, presenting a risk-balanced mathematical arbitrage margin of 0.89%. This represents a genuine market discrepancy across major bookmakers.