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Pre-match odds on Croatia vs Ghana create a mathematical arbitrage opportunity
- Croatia and Ghana's upcoming World Cup match has created a rare mathematical arbitrage opportunity across different bookmakers.
- Combining Croatia to win at 1.87, a draw at 3.35, and Ghana to win at 6.10 produces an implied probability sum of 99.72%.
- This discrepancy allows bettors to lock in a guaranteed risk-free profit margin of 0.28% regardless of the final score.
Supporting datasets
Supporting queries
To surface this insight, Baselight ran 2 queries across its structured data. Each one is reproducible — open it, read the SQL, and rerun it yourself.
Conclusion
In the World Cup fixture between Croatia and Ghana on 2026-06-27, a mathematical arbitrage opportunity is visible in the pre-match 1X2 market. The best available odds are: Home Win (Croatia) at 1.87 (Betano), Draw at 3.35 (10Bet), and Away Win (Ghana) at 6.10 (Unibet). The implied probabilities are 53.48% for Croatia, 29.85% for the draw, and 16.39% for Ghana. The sum of these implied probabilities is 99.72%, creating a mathematical arbitrage margin of 0.28%. A total of 12 bookmakers were checked for this fixture on the June 27 snapshot. This signal is fresh and highly relevant for review today.