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Possible 1x2 arbitrage signal in Espanyol vs Real Sociedad — La Liga, 0.38% margin
- The Match Winner market for Espanyol vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, 23 May) shows a possible arbitrage: best home Pinnacle 2.56 + best draw 1xBet 3.56 + best away 1xBet 3.08 produces a combined implied probability of 99.62%, leaving a margin of 0.38 percentage points.
- 14 bookmakers are covered, with odds collected 21 May 2026; the margin is narrower than the Celta/Sevilla signal and falls below the preferred 0.5 pp threshold.
- Execution risk is elevated relative to the margin size; this signal is flagged for review rather than immediate action.
Supporting datasets
Supporting queries
To surface this insight, Baselight ran 4 queries across its structured data. Each one is reproducible — open it, read the SQL, and rerun it yourself.
Conclusion
Fixture: Espanyol vs Real Sociedad, La Liga, 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTC. Market: Match Winner. Best home: Pinnacle 2.56 → implied 39.06%. Best draw: 1xBet 3.56 → implied 28.09%. Best away: 1xBet 3.08 → implied 32.47%. Total implied probability: 99.62%. Arbitrage margin: +0.38%. 14 bookmakers checked. Odds collected 21 May 2026. Standings: Espanyol 11th (45 pts, 37 played); Real Sociedad 10th (45 pts, 37 played) — level on points, same matches played.