Baselight
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1-- This creates your fully normalized, apples-to-apples dataset
2SELECT 
3    *,
4    -- NORMALIZED PROBABILITIES (both in same 0-1 format)
5    ROUND(1.0 / avg_home_odds, 3) as norm_bookmaker_home,
6    ROUND(1.0 / avg_draw_odds, 3) as norm_bookmaker_draw,
7    ROUND(1.0 / avg_away_odds, 3) as norm_bookmaker_away,
8    polymarket_home_odds as norm_polymarket_home,
9    polymarket_draw_odds as norm_polymarket_draw,
10    polymarket_away_odds as norm_polymarket_away
11FROM "@michal.polymarket_bookmaker_odds.polymarket_and_bookmaker_odds"
12where polymarket_home_odds is not null and polymarket_away_odds is not null and  polymarket_draw_odds is not null
leaguecountrygame_datehome_teamaway_teamhome_scoreaway_scoreactual_resultavg_home_oddsavg_draw_oddsavg_away_oddspolymarket_home_oddspolymarket_draw_oddspolymarket_away_oddsnum_bookmakersbookmaker_correctpolymarket_correctnorm_bookmaker_homenorm_bookmaker_drawnorm_bookmaker_awaynorm_polymarket_homenorm_polymarket_drawnorm_polymarket_away
BundesligaGermany2025-09-14 00:00:00+00Borussia MönchengladbachWerder Bremen04AWAY_WIN1.893.993.660.490.2850.27517falseNO0.5290.2510.2730.490.2850.275
BundesligaGermany2025-09-14 00:00:00+00FC St. PauliFC Augsburg21HOME_WIN2.193.383.280.4450.2850.26517trueYES0.4570.2960.3050.4450.2850.265
BundesligaGermany2025-09-13 00:00:00+00Union Berlin1899 Hoffenheim24AWAY_WIN2.443.362.840.360.280.3617falseNO0.410.2980.3520.360.280.36
BundesligaGermany2025-09-13 00:00:00+00VfL Wolfsburg1.FC Köln33DRAW1.943.513.840.4850.280.2517falseNO0.5150.2850.260.4850.280.25
BundesligaGermany2025-09-13 00:00:00+00Bayern MünchenHamburger SV50HOME_WIN1.0811.7725.420.920.280.02617trueYES0.9260.0850.0390.920.280.026
BundesligaGermany2025-09-13 00:00:00+001. FC HeidenheimBorussia Dortmund02AWAY_WIN4.724.151.640.1750.280.62517trueYES0.2120.2410.610.1750.280.625
BundesligaGermany2025-09-13 00:00:00+00SC FreiburgVfB Stuttgart31HOME_WIN33.472.270.3350.280.4117falseNO0.3330.2880.4410.3350.280.41
BundesligaGermany2025-09-12 00:00:00+00Bayer LeverkusenEintracht Frankfurt31HOME_WIN2.243.712.880.420.2450.3417trueYES0.4460.270.3470.420.2450.34
BundesligaGermany2025-08-31 00:00:00+001.FC KölnSC Freiburg41HOME_WIN2.553.312.760.3750.2850.34517trueNO0.3920.3020.3620.3750.2850.345
BundesligaGermany2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Borussia DortmundUnion Berlin30HOME_WIN1.395.137.140.70.2850.1317trueYES0.7190.1950.140.70.2850.13
BundesligaGermany2025-08-30 00:00:00+00Werder BremenBayer Leverkusen33DRAW3.493.821.980.2450.2550.50517falseNO0.2870.2620.5050.2450.2550.505
BundesligaGermany2025-08-30 00:00:00+00RB Leipzig1. FC Heidenheim20HOME_WIN1.464.766.20.670.2550.13517trueYES0.6850.210.1610.670.2550.135
BundesligaGermany2025-08-30 00:00:00+001899 HoffenheimEintracht Frankfurt13AWAY_WIN2.753.752.360.3250.2550.4217trueYES0.3640.2670.4240.3250.2550.42
BundesligaGermany2025-08-30 00:00:00+00VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach10HOME_WIN1.614.494.790.590.2550.217trueYES0.6210.2230.2090.590.2550.2
BundesligaGermany2025-08-30 00:00:00+00FC AugsburgBayern München23AWAY_WIN9.176.031.290.080.2550.78517trueYES0.1090.1660.7750.080.2550.785
BundesligaGermany2025-08-29 00:00:00+00Hamburger SVFC St. Pauli02AWAY_WIN2.373.3330.4050.280.3217falseNO0.4220.30.3330.4050.280.32
BundesligaGermany2025-08-24 00:00:00+00Borussia MönchengladbachHamburger SV00DRAW1.863.93.820.520.520.24516falseNO0.5380.2560.2620.520.520.245
BundesligaGermany2025-08-23 00:00:00+00SC FreiburgFC Augsburg13AWAY_WIN1.873.594.150.5250.270.2116falseNO0.5350.2790.2410.5250.270.21
BundesligaGermany2025-08-23 00:00:00+00Eintracht FrankfurtWerder Bremen41HOME_WIN1.684.144.620.570.270.2116trueYES0.5950.2420.2160.570.270.21
BundesligaGermany2025-08-23 00:00:00+00Union BerlinVfB Stuttgart21HOME_WIN3.643.681.970.30.270.4415falseNO0.2750.2720.5080.30.270.44
BundesligaGermany2025-08-23 00:00:00+00Bayer Leverkusen1899 Hoffenheim12AWAY_WIN1.594.475.010.630.270.1716falseNO0.6290.2240.20.630.270.17
BundesligaGermany2025-08-23 00:00:00+00FC St. PauliBorussia Dortmund33DRAW4.33.711.820.190.270.57516falseNO0.2330.270.5490.190.270.575
BundesligaGermany2025-08-23 00:00:00+001. FC HeidenheimVfL Wolfsburg13AWAY_WIN2.873.442.420.3050.270.4316trueYES0.3480.2910.4130.3050.270.43
BundesligaGermany2025-08-22 00:00:00+00Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig60HOME_WIN1.236.9910.250.7850.130.0916trueYES0.8130.1430.0980.7850.130.09
La LigaSpain2025-09-15 00:00:00+00EspanyolMallorca32HOME_WIN2.213.263.350.4450.2950.2617trueYES0.4520.3070.2990.4450.2950.26
La LigaSpain2025-09-14 00:00:00+00BarcelonaValencia60HOME_WIN1.256.510.560.8050.3050.0817trueYES0.80.1540.0950.8050.3050.08
La LigaSpain2025-09-14 00:00:00+00Celta VigoGirona11DRAW1.683.924.860.580.3050.20517falseNO0.5950.2550.2060.580.3050.205
La LigaSpain2025-09-14 00:00:00+00OsasunaRayo Vallecano20HOME_WIN2.433.123.10.370.3050.3217trueYES0.4120.3210.3230.370.3050.32
La LigaSpain2025-09-13 00:00:00+00Athletic ClubAlaves01AWAY_WIN1.593.816.020.6150.3150.14517falseNO0.6290.2620.1660.6150.3150.145
La LigaSpain2025-09-13 00:00:00+00Atletico MadridVillarreal20HOME_WIN1.843.664.180.520.3150.21517trueYES0.5430.2730.2390.520.3150.215
La LigaSpain2025-09-13 00:00:00+00GetafeOviedo20HOME_WIN1.933.154.480.480.3150.20517trueYES0.5180.3170.2230.480.3150.205
La LigaSpain2025-09-13 00:00:00+00Real SociedadReal Madrid12AWAY_WIN5.223.991.620.1750.3150.61517trueNO0.1920.2510.6170.1750.3150.615
La LigaSpain2025-09-12 00:00:00+00SevillaElche22DRAW2.053.343.740.4750.290.2317falseNO0.4880.2990.2670.4750.290.23
La LigaSpain2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Celta VigoVillarreal11DRAW2.73.472.510.350.310.3915falseNO0.370.2880.3980.350.310.39
La LigaSpain2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Real BetisAthletic Club12AWAY_WIN2.873.132.60.3150.310.3815trueYES0.3480.3190.3850.3150.310.38
La LigaSpain2025-08-31 00:00:00+00EspanyolOsasuna10HOME_WIN2.353.163.170.4050.310.315trueYES0.4260.3160.3150.4050.310.3
La LigaSpain2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Rayo VallecanoBarcelona11DRAW6.845.181.40.130.310.713falseNO0.1460.1930.7140.130.310.7
La LigaSpain2025-08-30 00:00:00+00AlavesAtletico Madrid11DRAW4.693.481.80.20.310.5415falseNO0.2130.2870.5560.20.310.54
La LigaSpain2025-08-30 00:00:00+00OviedoReal Sociedad10HOME_WIN3.533.112.220.2650.310.42515falseNO0.2830.3220.450.2650.310.425
La LigaSpain2025-08-30 00:00:00+00Real MadridMallorca21HOME_WIN1.216.613.120.820.310.06515trueYES0.8260.1520.0760.820.310.065
La LigaSpain2025-08-30 00:00:00+00GironaSevilla02AWAY_WIN2.323.243.170.3950.310.3215falseNO0.4310.3090.3150.3950.310.32
La LigaSpain2025-08-29 00:00:00+00ValenciaGetafe30HOME_WIN2.182.963.90.430.3250.2415trueYES0.4590.3380.2560.430.3250.24
La LigaSpain2025-08-27 00:00:00+00Celta VigoReal Betis11DRAW2.363.462.90.440.270.314falseNO0.4240.2890.3450.440.270.3
La LigaSpain2025-08-25 00:00:00+00SevillaGetafe12AWAY_WIN2.253.043.520.4350.3150.25516falseNO0.4440.3290.2840.4350.3150.255
La LigaSpain2025-08-25 00:00:00+00Athletic ClubRayo Vallecano10HOME_WIN1.73.575.280.5750.3150.1716trueYES0.5880.280.1890.5750.3150.17
La LigaSpain2025-08-24 00:00:00+00Real SociedadEspanyol22DRAW1.833.434.750.530.3050.1916falseNO0.5460.2920.2110.530.3050.19
La LigaSpain2025-08-24 00:00:00+00VillarrealGirona50HOME_WIN1.564.255.540.630.3050.1616trueYES0.6410.2350.1810.630.3050.16
La LigaSpain2025-08-24 00:00:00+00OsasunaValencia10HOME_WIN2.323.23.180.3950.3050.29516trueYES0.4310.3130.3140.3950.3050.295
La LigaSpain2025-08-24 00:00:00+00OviedoReal Madrid03AWAY_WIN9.615.191.310.0950.3050.7516trueYES0.1040.1930.7630.0950.3050.75
La LigaSpain2025-08-23 00:00:00+00MallorcaCelta Vigo11DRAW2.943.122.520.310.310.36516falseNO0.340.3210.3970.310.310.365
La LigaSpain2025-08-23 00:00:00+00Atletico MadridElche11DRAW1.265.5812.180.790.310.06516falseNO0.7940.1790.0820.790.310.065
La LigaSpain2025-08-22 00:00:00+00Real BetisAlaves10HOME_WIN1.853.434.470.530.270.20516trueYES0.5410.2920.2240.530.270.205
La LigaSpain2025-08-19 00:00:00+00Real MadridOsasuna10HOME_WIN1.236.4511.810.790.140.07517trueYES0.8130.1550.0850.790.140.075
La LigaSpain2025-08-18 00:00:00+00ElcheReal Betis11DRAW3.253.262.270.270.2850.4417falseNO0.3080.3070.4410.270.2850.44
La LigaSpain2025-08-17 00:00:00+00EspanyolAtletico Madrid21HOME_WIN5.923.921.590.140.280.6117falseNO0.1690.2550.6290.140.280.61
La LigaSpain2025-08-17 00:00:00+00Athletic ClubSevilla32HOME_WIN1.623.765.870.610.280.15517trueYES0.6170.2660.170.610.280.155
La LigaSpain2025-08-17 00:00:00+00Celta VigoGetafe02AWAY_WIN1.693.495.710.5550.280.1617falseNO0.5920.2870.1750.5550.280.16
Ligue 1France2025-09-14 00:00:00+00LilleToulouse21HOME_WIN1.853.714.140.550.290.21517trueYES0.5410.270.2420.550.290.215
Ligue 1France2025-09-14 00:00:00+00MetzAngers11DRAW2.243.333.270.410.290.317falseNO0.4460.30.3060.410.290.3
Ligue 1France2025-09-14 00:00:00+00Paris Saint GermainLens20HOME_WIN1.315.858.650.7450.290.1117trueYES0.7630.1710.1160.7450.290.11
Ligue 1France2025-09-13 00:00:00+00NiceNantes10HOME_WIN1.693.845.060.5750.2450.1917trueYES0.5920.260.1980.5750.2450.19
Ligue 1France2025-08-31 00:00:00+00LyonMarseille10HOME_WIN2.833.552.380.330.270.40513falseNO0.3530.2820.420.330.270.405
Ligue 1France2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Paris FCMetz32HOME_WIN1.813.694.390.550.270.20513trueYES0.5520.2710.2280.550.270.205
Ligue 1France2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Le HavreNice31HOME_WIN3.463.472.10.2650.270.47513falseNO0.2890.2880.4760.2650.270.475
Ligue 1France2025-08-30 00:00:00+00LorientLille17AWAY_WIN3.263.472.180.2850.30.4513trueYES0.3070.2880.4590.2850.30.45
Ligue 1France2025-08-30 00:00:00+00ToulouseParis Saint Germain36AWAY_WIN8.085.261.360.120.30.7113trueYES0.1240.190.7350.120.30.71
Ligue 1France2025-08-30 00:00:00+00NantesAuxerre10HOME_WIN2.343.23.190.4250.30.28513trueYES0.4270.3130.3130.4250.30.285
Ligue 1France2025-08-24 00:00:00+00Le HavreLens12AWAY_WIN4.023.651.880.240.290.49515trueYES0.2490.2740.5320.240.290.495
Ligue 1France2025-08-23 00:00:00+00NiceAuxerre31HOME_WIN1.733.894.610.580.2350.1915trueYES0.5780.2570.2170.580.2350.19
Ligue 1France2025-08-23 00:00:00+00MarseilleParis FC52HOME_WIN1.394.857.560.7050.2350.1215trueYES0.7190.2060.1320.7050.2350.12
Ligue 1France2025-08-23 00:00:00+00LyonMetz30HOME_WIN1.434.846.730.690.2350.12515trueYES0.6990.2070.1490.690.2350.125
Ligue 1France2025-08-22 00:00:00+00Paris Saint GermainAngers10HOME_WIN1.0911.1725.570.9050.070.03115trueYES0.9170.090.0390.9050.070.031
Ligue 1France2025-08-17 00:00:00+00NantesParis Saint Germain01AWAY_WIN9.75.91.290.110.30.7217trueYES0.1030.1690.7750.110.30.72
Ligue 1France2025-08-17 00:00:00+00AngersParis FC10HOME_WIN3.043.252.410.360.30.33517falseNO0.3290.3080.4150.360.30.335
Ligue 1France2025-08-17 00:00:00+00AuxerreLorient10HOME_WIN2.393.2830.4050.30.3117trueYES0.4180.3050.3330.4050.30.31
Premier LeagueEngland2025-09-14 00:00:00+00Manchester CityManchester United30HOME_WIN1.714.034.50.550.2350.22517trueNO0.5850.2480.2220.550.2350.225
Premier LeagueEngland2025-09-13 00:00:00+00EvertonAston Villa00DRAW2.653.252.710.3850.2850.32515falseNO0.3770.3080.3690.3850.2850.325
Premier LeagueEngland2025-09-13 00:00:00+00BournemouthBrighton21HOME_WIN2.393.562.790.40.2850.3415trueYES0.4180.2810.3580.40.2850.34
Premier LeagueEngland2025-09-13 00:00:00+00West HamTottenham03AWAY_WIN3.453.552.070.270.2850.4717trueYES0.290.2820.4830.270.2850.47
Premier LeagueEngland2025-09-13 00:00:00+00ArsenalNottingham Forest30HOME_WIN1.414.77.280.7150.2850.10515trueYES0.7090.2130.1370.7150.2850.105
Premier LeagueEngland2025-09-13 00:00:00+00BrentfordChelsea22DRAW4.323.791.780.2050.2850.56517falseNO0.2310.2640.5620.2050.2850.565
Premier LeagueEngland2025-09-13 00:00:00+00NewcastleWolves10HOME_WIN1.454.516.610.680.2850.12515trueYES0.690.2220.1510.680.2850.125
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Nottingham ForestWest Ham03AWAY_WIN1.743.744.820.5850.280.1815falseNO0.5750.2670.2070.5850.280.18
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-31 00:00:00+00Aston VillaCrystal Palace03AWAY_WIN1.943.484.010.5150.280.22515falseNO0.5150.2870.2490.5150.280.225
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-31 00:00:00+00LiverpoolArsenal10HOME_WIN2.23.473.280.430.280.2915trueYES0.4550.2880.3050.430.280.29
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-31 00:00:00+00BrightonManchester City21HOME_WIN3.933.821.870.2450.280.5215falseNO0.2540.2620.5350.2450.280.52
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-30 00:00:00+00ChelseaFulham20HOME_WIN1.584.195.470.6350.3050.15515trueYES0.6330.2390.1830.6350.3050.155
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-30 00:00:00+00TottenhamBournemouth01AWAY_WIN1.813.884.120.5750.3050.21515falseNO0.5520.2580.2430.5750.3050.215
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-30 00:00:00+00WolvesEverton23AWAY_WIN3.133.132.450.360.3050.34513trueNO0.3190.3190.4080.360.3050.345
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-25 00:00:00+00NewcastleLiverpool23AWAY_WIN3.293.782.070.280.2350.48515trueYES0.3040.2650.4830.280.2350.485
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-24 00:00:00+00FulhamManchester United11DRAW3.23.492.170.290.2950.43515falseNO0.3130.2870.4610.290.2950.435
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-24 00:00:00+00Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest11DRAW2.33.33.110.40.2950.29515falseNO0.4350.3030.3220.40.2950.295
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-24 00:00:00+00EvertonBrighton20HOME_WIN2.953.332.410.310.2950.39515falseNO0.3390.30.4150.310.2950.395
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-23 00:00:00+00BrentfordAston Villa10HOME_WIN3.123.472.20.290.3050.4415falseNO0.3210.2880.4550.290.3050.44
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-23 00:00:00+00Manchester CityTottenham02AWAY_WIN1.494.665.880.660.3050.15515falseNO0.6710.2150.170.660.3050.155
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-23 00:00:00+00BournemouthWolves10HOME_WIN1.793.764.240.540.3050.2115trueYES0.5590.2660.2360.540.3050.21
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-22 00:00:00+00West HamChelsea15AWAY_WIN4.843.991.680.190.230.5815trueYES0.2070.2510.5950.190.230.58
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-17 00:00:00+00ChelseaCrystal Palace00DRAW1.664.14.90.60.2850.17517falseNO0.6020.2440.2040.60.2850.175
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-17 00:00:00+00Nottingham ForestBrentford31HOME_WIN2.123.363.510.4550.2850.2717trueYES0.4720.2980.2850.4550.2850.27
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-17 00:00:00+00Manchester UnitedArsenal01AWAY_WIN3.863.611.950.2250.2850.5217trueYES0.2590.2770.5130.2250.2850.52
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-16 00:00:00+00BrightonFulham11DRAW1.893.6440.510.280.23517falseNO0.5290.2750.250.510.280.235
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-16 00:00:00+00Aston VillaNewcastle00DRAW2.33.562.940.430.280.31517falseNO0.4350.2810.340.430.280.315
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-16 00:00:00+00WolvesManchester City04AWAY_WIN6.324.51.490.1350.280.6817trueYES0.1580.2220.6710.1350.280.68
Premier LeagueEngland2025-08-15 00:00:00+00LiverpoolBournemouth42HOME_WIN1.35.958.570.7650.1450.0917trueYES0.7690.1680.1170.7650.1450.09
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00TottenhamBrighton14AWAY_WIN4.724.511.620.2150.250.5817trueYES0.2120.2220.6170.2150.250.58
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00LiverpoolCrystal Palace11DRAW1.425.456.080.710.250.13517falseNO0.7040.1830.1640.710.250.135
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00Manchester UnitedAston Villa20HOME_WIN4.334.111.730.2050.250.56517falseYES0.2310.2430.5780.2050.250.565
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00SouthamptonArsenal12AWAY_WIN11.316.521.230.090.250.75517trueYES0.0880.1530.8130.090.250.755
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00BournemouthLeicester20HOME_WIN1.315.88.550.740.250.10515trueYES0.7630.1720.1170.740.250.105
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00NewcastleEverton01AWAY_WIN1.285.7910.320.7450.250.117falseNO0.7810.1730.0970.7450.250.1
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00Nottingham ForestChelsea01AWAY_WIN3.393.782.030.310.250.44517trueYES0.2950.2650.4930.310.250.445
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00WolvesBrentford11DRAW3.13.762.140.340.250.4115falseNO0.3230.2660.4670.340.250.41
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00FulhamManchester City02AWAY_WIN5.264.251.590.1750.250.6117trueYES0.190.2350.6290.1750.250.61
Premier LeagueEngland2025-05-25 00:00:00+00IpswichWest Ham13AWAY_WIN3.143.672.150.3150.250.4415trueYES0.3180.2720.4650.3150.250.44

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