US recession probabilities

🎯 Daily Recession Risk Assessment

Today's Signal: 🟢 LOW RISK — All indicators stable, no immediate recession threat

📊 Composite Index: 32.9 (Safer than 78% of 2025 days)
📈 Polymarket Odds: 5.5% (Down 91% from April peak)
✅ Warning Triggers: 0 of 5 active

💡 What This Means: Economic fundamentals remain healthy. The April 2025 crisis was successfully navigated, and markets have calmed significantly.

📊 Understanding This Chart

🟢 Teal Line (Composite Index): Combines 6 economic indicators into single 0-100 recession risk score
🔵 Blue Line (Polymarket): What prediction markets think recession probability is

What to Watch:

• 📈 Lines converging = Market agrees with fundamentals
• 📉 Lines diverging = Disagreement (opportunity or warning)
• 🤔 Either line > 50 = Elevated recession risk

💡 Currently: Market is underpricing risk by 27 points (fundamentals slightly worse than market thinks, but both low)

🎯 The Big Three Leading Indicators

These indicators typically warn of recessions 6-18 months in advance

😱 VIX: The "Fear Index" — Current: 21.66 🟡

What it means: Measures expected stock market volatility over next 30 days

The Zones:
🟢 0-15 Calm • 🌑 15-20 Normal • 🟡 20-30 Elevated (📍 we are here) • 🔴 30+ Extreme ( warning at 35)

🏆 Historic Spikes:
COVID-19: 82.7 • 2008 Crisis: 80.9 • April 2025: 52.3 • Black Monday 1987: 150+