The chart shows that traders on Polymarket are overwhelmingly betting on a 25bp cut at the next Fed meeting. That outcome clearly leads, while the chances of no change are much smaller. Bigger cuts barely show up, and an increase is basically dismissed.
Interestingly, the market with the most money flowing into it isn’t the one traders think is most likely. The largest volume is actually sitting in the least probable outcome.
FED rate changes 2024-2025
Loading...Loading chart...
Historical markets
Actual vs Predicted Decisions
meeting_date
actual_decision
predicted_decision
predicted_probability
2024-09-18
50bp Cut
50bp Cut
58.5000
2024-11-07
25bp Cut
25bp Cut
93.5000
2024-12-18
25bp Cut
25bp Cut
97.1500
2025-01-31
No Change
No Change
98.5500
2025-03-20
No Change
No Change
99.2000
2025-05-07
No Change
No Change
97.9500
2025-06-18
No Change
No Change
97.7500
2025-07-30
No Change
No Change
96.3500
2025-09-17
25bp Cut
25bp Cut
90.5000
Share link
Anyone who has the link will be able to view this.
