FED decision - Polymarket

Polymarket bets on rate cuts

The chart shows that traders on Polymarket are overwhelmingly betting on a 25bp cut at the next Fed meeting. That outcome clearly leads, while the chances of no change are much smaller. Bigger cuts barely show up, and an increase is basically dismissed.

Interestingly, the market with the most money flowing into it isn’t the one traders think is most likely. The largest volume is actually sitting in the least probable outcome.

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