FRED-interest-rate-spreads

Source is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/"NAME OF MEASURE"
Column names are "Name of Measure" from FRED's catalog.

Group 1: Yield Curve Indicators
These focus on the shape of the Treasury yield curve, comparing longer-term to shorter-term rates. They are primarily used to:
Signal Economic Expectations: A normal curve (longer-term rates higher) suggests expectations of growth and possibly inflation. A flattening or inverted curve (short-term rates near or above long-term) could signal a potential slowdown or recession.

Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations
These spreads look at the difference between Treasury yields and the Federal Funds Rate, the primary tool of monetary policy. They indicate:
Market vs. Fed Outlook: Widening spreads could suggest the market expects faster rate hikes or higher long-term inflation than the Fed is signaling. Narrowing spreads could mean the opposite.
Risk-Taking: When these spreads widen, it can be a sign of investors moving from safe Treasuries to riskier assets in search of yield.

Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment
These spreads focus on corporate bond yields relative to Treasuries, highlighting the added compensation investors require for holding riskier corporate debt. They signal:
Credit Conditions: Widening spreads suggest deteriorating credit conditions or lower risk tolerance among investors. Narrowing spreads suggest the opposite.
Economic Confidence: Investors often demand higher premiums for corporate bonds during economic uncertainty, widening these spreads.

Group 4: Breakeven Inflation Rates
The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average.