US Census And Election Results (2000-2020)

There is a vast amount of literature in different disciplines, such as economics, political science, and data science, about what factors affect the prediction of election outcomes. Various data are being considered to predict the election results, such as social media posts, survey results, referendum judgments, etc.

There are various sources, such as fundamental variables, to predict election results, especially in the United States. Fundamentals refer to variables independent of the current election rhetoric, the campaign performance of a candidate immediately before an election, or social media posts. Fundamental variables include individuals' annual income, annual total family income, age, gender, marital status, race, citizenship status, language spoken at home, education level, and employment status at the individual level. Using these fundamental variables, we aim to determine whether we can predict election outcomes.

Datasets and demographic information are scraped and merged from the US Census website (https://usa.ipums.org/usa/) and MIT Election Data + Science Lab (https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ).

This dataset is aimed at highlighting the potential for predicting the United States presidential election outcomes at the county level based on the fundamental variables acquired from the American Community Survey data (ACS).