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Methanex FY EPS consensus doubles in 30 days; Q1 loss masks improving methanol pricing
- Methanex (MX.TO) saw its FY 2026 EPS consensus rise from C$4.54 to C$9.17 in 30 days (+102%) — with 6 FY upgrades and zero cuts in 7 days — following Q1 results that included a $14 million net loss driven by mark-to-market share-based compensation, offset by $220 million Adjusted EBITDA and $23 million Adjusted net income
- The current-quarter estimate rose 40% in just 7 days (C$2.91 to C$4.07), while the +1Q estimate jumped 30% to C$2.53, with management guiding to significantly higher Q2 Adjusted EBITDA based on April–May methanol prices of $500–$525 per tonne
- The stock closed at C$89.55 on May 5 — up 60% year-to-date and just 4% below its 52-week high of C$92.97 — reflecting analyst conviction in a recovery driven by improving methanol pricing and solid operational performance
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Supporting queries
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Conclusion
eps_trend (May 6 snapshot): 0Y C$9.17 vs C$4.54 thirty days ago (+102%); 0Q C$4.07 vs C$2.91 seven days ago (+40%); +1Q C$2.53 vs C$1.94 (+30%). eps_revisions (May 6): 0Y — 6 upgrades, 0 cuts; +1Y — 5 upgrades, 1 cut. Q1 results: $14M net loss (non-GAAP: $220M Adjusted EBITDA, $23M Adjusted net income); realized methanol price $351/tonne vs $331 in Q4 2025. Q2 guidance: $500–$525/tonne April–May prices, significantly higher Adjusted EBITDA expected. daily_prices: MX.TO close C$89.55 (May 5), 52w high C$92.97, 52w low C$43.27. News: Q1 results (Apr 29), TPH Buy maintained (May 1), Simply Wall St. note (May 5).